[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebound Slightly on October 30 as US Fed Cuts Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points as Expected

SMM Nickel October 30 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, which was in line with market expectations. This was also the fifth rate cut since September 2024. The Fed also announced that it will end balance sheet reduction on December 1.

(2) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: As agreed by China and the US, President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 local time to exchange views on China-US relations and issues of mutual interest.

Spot Market:

On October 30, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 120,800-123,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,200 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200-100 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) fluctuated rangebound at high levels and closed at 121,460 yuan/mt, up 440 yuan/mt (a gain of 0.36%). In early trading today, SHFE nickel opened slightly higher and maintained an upward fluctuation trend during the session; as of the midday close, it was quoted at 121,210 yuan/mt, up 0.16%.

The US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Chairman Powell clearly stated that a December rate cut is not a "done deal" and pointed out significant divisions within the committee. This hawkish tone caused market expectations for another rate cut within the year to plummet from 95% to 65%, triggering a brief rebound in the US dollar index. The uncertainty in the policy path suppressed bullish sentiment, limiting the rebound in nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to move sideways in the near term, with a reference price range of 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.